In the same news article, it mentioned extensively, the dry and hot weather having drastic effect on durian supplies, as well as the quality of durian, citing interviews with some sellers. This seems to have echoed what was reported in M'sia newspaper sometime back.
Just some thoughts. No evidence to back up my thoughts.
Hot and Dry Weather
This year's weather is indeed adverse due to El Nino effect. However, the weather in Pahang during mid year has always been hot and dry, except that it is hotter and dryer this year.
Initially, I took the news article (Malaysia) as reported, having some truths. But after some thoughts, Pahang and Penang tends to be hot and dry compared to the southern states.
Going back to my trip to Penang on Labour Day, it doesn't appear like the hot and dry weather hit durian growing. I don't see bush fire burnt grass patches, but I saw durian trees with lots of durian on Balik Pulau. I don't have past years' durian growth as backup, but I doubt it is as bad as reported.
Supplies Shrunk
It was mentioned that this season's supply have shrunk by 30-50% compared to last year. But, last year was a bumper supply, that only happens once in many many years, so how do we compare last year's supply to this year?
I do not know what was the average supplies in previous years before 2015, but if we use last year's supply, which was maybe doubled of previous years. In that case, a 30-50% drop this year compared to last year just pretty much averages out to the past doesn't it?
The last major bumper supply I recall was in about 1997/98 (can't recall which year), where D24 selling price dropped to as low as $1 or $1.50 per kilogram. In 2008, durian quality was very good, but supply, could be just a tad higher but not like 2015.
Durian Flowers Falling Off
Durian flowers grows in a huge bunch and only a few will mature into fruits. This isn't new. The below photo is how durian flowers blossom in a bunch.
Below photo is how only a few will grow into full size durians. Although they are not the same bunch, but it is general. Of course there are some bunches of flowers where more than 1 or 2 will mature into full size durians.
The Delay
From past years durian supplies, the season usually starts with Johor durians, follows by Pahang durians few weeks later. This will result in a 'crash' thereby when supply is high, price falls.
This season's durian supply from Johor is delayed severely. Johor's weather usually isn't as dry as Pahang especially in mid year period. This year's extreme hot and dry spell has affected Johor's durian flowering period thus the supply is expected to peak only in July.
Unevenly Ripe Durian
Durian itself, needs some water. In my layman opinion, it is like human skin, our skin breathes. Durian itself also needs some water, not just from the roots. Thus the hot and dry weather in mid year, always affects durian quality during mid year.
Like I blog previously, Johor tends to have some rainfall in mid year flowering/fruition period while Pahang is drier. Year end, Johor has too much rainfall while Pahang is just nice (for durians).
In mid year, Pahang's durian having this 'lokok' (unevenly ripe) durian is not uncommon, so this season's supply is like all other mid years' from Pahang, nothing surprising.
Conclusion
Yes, durian cost is high currently as compared to past years. Durian supply is delayed too. But to squarely believe what is reported, which is based on what plantations and sellers claims, is just blind faith.
Durian cost will be higher as the years goes by. This is due to operating cost going up with inflation, as well as the Chinese market's huge appetite. The Chinese (China) have all these years, been eating Thailand durian (Monthong aka Golden Pillow).
It is in recent years, they are slowly being exposed to Malaysia durians. Once their palate adapts, the market will be huge. Opportunities will also result in more and more plantations growing the King of Fruits.
