It was reported just a week ago, First Chartered Flight Leaves Sepang For China.
Does it alarm you that Malaysia is starting to legally export whole durians to China? What is the impact on consumers in Singapore?
Many of us are aware the size of the Chinese market and if more and more of them are able to have ready access to Malaysia durians, it means the demand will only multiply by leaps and bounds. This may even 'outstrip' supplies to Singapore, resulting in very high prices for the ever desired King of Fruits.
Pre-China Market
Traditionally, exported durians (to other countries other than Singapore) were dominated by Thailand, as they harvest the durians instead of letting it drop upon ripening. This resulted in the durians having much longer shelf life, but less pungentness, thus Malaysia durians are much stronger in taste and smell.
However, with the huge Chinese market, the game plan will change. Malaysia durians are starting to hit the Chinese and it will only grow exponentially.
Many durian lovers are now concern of the supply.
Malaysia Durian Plantations
The biggest supplies comes from Pahang, given the good landscape, nutrients and planting conditions. Penang durians are in huge demand, and they are unable to supply much out of Penang, but mostly consumed by the local (within Penang) market, thus I will leave them out of this post.
Johor supplies are high, but their durians are lower in demand compared to Pahang. Johor's terrain are mostly flat land, thus the ground water may sometimes, be too much for durian trees.
Durian trees needs well drained soil, which is what Pahang (hilly) provides.
Pahang Plantations
Those who have driven up to Pahang in recent years, will noticed, the hill slopes being filled, mostly with durian trees than other agricultural plants/trees.
Some of these durian plantations are rather new, trees are younger. As a result, supplies from the younger plantations will be lower, or the characters of durians may not have been well developed yet. Given another 3-5 years, these trees will reach a good maturity, thereby, the produce will improve.
Don't get me wrong, these trees are mostly, not grown from seeds, but mostly grafted stems from mature trees. It takes a mere few years for these grafted stems to mature and start flowering/producing. A few years of flowering will help the tree to mature. That's where I'm coming from.
East Malaysia and Borneo Plantations
Recently, I heard that thousands of arces of land in Sabah are used to cultivate durians. Same as in Indonesia, etc. Even novice are getting into the band wagon as they all think the Chinese market is so huge, they want a slice of the action.
Way back in the early/mid 90s, similar happened, where a lot of rubber plantation owners chopped down their trees and planted durians. By later part of the 90s, durian were so cheap, D24 was going as low as $1/kg.
Supplies To China
The Chinese market is able to absorb more than reported. In fact, suppliers dare not commit to the demand, for fear of liquidated damages if they fall short.
So, we should be really worried. Yes, not really.
As there are a lot more plantations now than before, in 3-5 years time, the supply would likely peak, and more trees are also being planted as the days goes by. We may face higher price, but it won't likely be out of reach of most consumers.
We should also remember, Thailand was the No 1 exporter of durians. Would they bow out of the competition for the Chinese market? NO! If we think the Thai plantations will stick to their traditional durian supply, we are really naive.
Thai agriculture are way more advance. They will also join in the supply chain of premium durians, including Mao Shan Wang. Either they establish their own export license to China, or they may export it via Malaysia!
Thai agriculture are way more advance. They will also join in the supply chain of premium durians, including Mao Shan Wang. Either they establish their own export license to China, or they may export it via Malaysia!
Supplies to Local Market and Singapore
What I am more concern of is, the quality of durians instead of supply. Farms/suppliers will handpick those that are suitable for freezing and exporting to China. This means, rejects will be supply to local market and Singapore. Unless there is a bumper harvest, we are more likely to receive slightly lower quality (either less or more ripe) durians.
The less ripe ones are not necessary less ripe. Durians selected for Chinese market are to be of a certain percentage of ripeness. Those that are lesser or over that level, will be rejected.
The journey to Singapore takes about 8 hours. The journey will be a little bumpy (not due to road condition, but generally, that's how transportation on lorries works), which can help ripen and soften durians a bit. Durian sellers will also bump the durians before selling, so as to soften it further.
In the past, the good quality durians are sent to Singapore due to the volume and stronger Sing Dollar (consumers can better afford). Now, the game changer is coming.
Conclusion
It is a bit far, to predict how durian supply and prices will evolve into, but given the many many plantations popping up everywhere, I am seriously not worried (else next 2 years, I better stock up 50kg of puree to last me 5-8 years).
We may not be as spoil as before, with great durians and cheaper price (esp bumper harvest) but we won't be deprived.
Chinese market may be huge, but not everyone can appreciate durians, and not everyone can afford $120 (or RMB600) per durian. Also, export/import license to China is controlled, thus not all plantation will have the way into the Chinese market.
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As mentioned above, Thailand will also join in the supply chain for the Malaysian variants of durian, the Thailand Trade Office had warned the industry of the competition (even though it typically mentions Hainan Province).
I would think, they will be looking into improving their durians, 'hybrid' with Malaysia's premium durians as the Malaysian durian has gain momentum with Chinese consumers.
When Thailand succeed, and it won't take many years, the supply of the much loved stronger tasting durians will increase. The market in China is huge, Thailand won't want to lose their market share.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/made-in-china-durians-thailands-trade-office-warns-of-future-competition
We may not be as spoil as before, with great durians and cheaper price (esp bumper harvest) but we won't be deprived.
Chinese market may be huge, but not everyone can appreciate durians, and not everyone can afford $120 (or RMB600) per durian. Also, export/import license to China is controlled, thus not all plantation will have the way into the Chinese market.
---------------------------------------------- add on ------------------------------
As mentioned above, Thailand will also join in the supply chain for the Malaysian variants of durian, the Thailand Trade Office had warned the industry of the competition (even though it typically mentions Hainan Province).
I would think, they will be looking into improving their durians, 'hybrid' with Malaysia's premium durians as the Malaysian durian has gain momentum with Chinese consumers.
When Thailand succeed, and it won't take many years, the supply of the much loved stronger tasting durians will increase. The market in China is huge, Thailand won't want to lose their market share.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/made-in-china-durians-thailands-trade-office-warns-of-future-competition
