In recent years, durian supply were inconsistent.
In 2015, consumers benefited from bumper harvest, which saw prices plummet while the quality was also at it's best. That year, any variant of durian all taste awesome regardless.
In 2016, the El Nino effect caused a huge decline in durian supply. Quality were not as impressive, and prices hold firm. The rumour was, huge supply of durians were exported to China. The good ones were singled out by plantations, packed into styroform boxes and sent to China as the prices are higher there.
In the past, before the Chinese market opened up, during huge harvest, durians were dumped into Singapore, as the most convenient market. Now that the Chinese market has opened, they still dump, the inferior ones, to Singapore.
Now, in 2017, the La Nina effect caused a further decline in supply as flowers and tiny durian fruits were all brought down by the prolonged, and sometimes heavy rain. The depression of supply, coupled with the chinese market (although this year, exports to China may not be as much as in 2016), prices sky rocketed! Prices we never seen before! MSW used to bottom out at as low as $10/kg (B grade) or about $15/kg average (A grade). This year, A grade MSW were hovering between $25-35/kg at most stalls.
What next?
A Recent Trip To Pahang
In July and (1-3) Sept 2017, I was invited by my friend, Dr Roy, to join him on a trip up to Pahang (Bentong, Raub, Klau) for a durian trip. These 2 trips were quite an eye opener. We saw the hilly slopes all over Pahang, filled with durian trees. Almost every corner you looked, you see durian trees. Almost every estate we drove by, we saw scattered few trees too.
The plantations in Pahang, are mostly growing Mao Shan Wang (MSW, aka Cat Mountain King or King of Cat Mountain) and D24 variant of durians.
There are some plantations that explored into developing a small part of their plantation into resort stay. Bearing in mind, most part of Pahang are easily 1,000 feet above sea level, a lot of greens, the air and temperature there are welcoming. These resort stays will gain popularity in time to come.
We were also privilege to visit a plantation in Klau and met a few durian plantation owners/operators. Through the dialogue, we understand the exponential market in China. The volume they are able to absorb, is so huge, that even suppliers dare not commit. There are different demands and market, different ways of storing and exporting durians.
It was a good trip (1-3 Sept 2017). We made new friends, enjoyed good durians, ate great food (and if you do visit Bentong/Raub, do try the freshwater fishes at restaurants. I'm hooked).
Brief Recent History
In the mid 90s, we saw an over supply of durian. Prices plummet to as low as $1.20/kg for D24 (MSW wasn't available in Singapore then). The depressed price caused losses to plantation owners. Many plantations ended up chopping down their trees and switching to oil palm. Supply and prices of durian start to 'recover and stabilized' in the late 90s and early 2000s.
The China and HK demand became known sometime in the early 2010. Selling prices there is about S$100-$120/kg and order list were established even before durians were imported into those markets. MSW durians were not sold in shops.
New preservation methods (simply using temperature to control further ripening) had opened up markets further.
Future Of Durian
The new concern Singapore and Malaysia consumers will be bothered about, is the supply and prices. The surge in prices this year and many realising the huge Chinese market, are raising concerns on the future supplies and prices.
Looking at the swats of agriculture land used to plant durian trees, the trees looks rather young, many are hovering between the height of 15-30 feet. These trees may not produce huge harvest in the coming years but I guess, it will start to mature in the coming 3-5 years.
In approximately 5 years, we should see supply increase tremendously (subjected to weather too). I do believe supply can meet the new demand from China market, although I doubt it will bring prices down to what we experience years ago.
Will we see another over supply situation like in the mid 90s? Chances are slim. Well, unless ground sentiments of the Chinese (like how they boycott Japan and South Korea from time to time) strikes between them and Malaysia.
However, due to the huge swats of land being used to cultivate durians, we should see price equilibrium around the $18-20/kg region during the peak.
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Above is just my novice observations and opinion.
