In recent years, durian supply were inconsistent.
In 2015, consumers benefited from bumper harvest, which saw prices plummet while the quality was also at it's best. That year, any variant of durian all taste awesome regardless.
In 2016, the El Nino effect caused a huge decline in durian supply. Quality were not as impressive, and prices hold firm. The rumour was, huge supply of durians were exported to China. The good ones were singled out by plantations, packed into styroform boxes and sent to China as the prices are higher there.
In the past, before the Chinese market opened up, during huge harvest, durians were dumped into Singapore, as the most convenient market. Now that the Chinese market has opened, they still dump, the inferior ones, to Singapore.
Now, in 2017, the La Nina effect caused a further decline in supply as flowers and tiny durian fruits were all brought down by the prolonged, and sometimes heavy rain. The depression of supply, coupled with the chinese market (although this year, exports to China may not be as much as in 2016), prices sky rocketed! Prices we never seen before! MSW used to bottom out at as low as $10/kg (B grade) or about $15/kg average (A grade). This year, A grade MSW were hovering between $25-35/kg at most stalls.
What next?
A Recent Trip To Pahang
In July and (1-3) Sept 2017, I was invited by my friend, Dr Roy, to join him on a trip up to Pahang (Bentong, Raub, Klau) for a durian trip. These 2 trips were quite an eye opener. We saw the hilly slopes all over Pahang, filled with durian trees. Almost every corner you looked, you see durian trees. Almost every estate we drove by, we saw scattered few trees too.
The plantations in Pahang, are mostly growing Mao Shan Wang (MSW, aka Cat Mountain King or King of Cat Mountain) and D24 variant of durians.
There are some plantations that explored into developing a small part of their plantation into resort stay. Bearing in mind, most part of Pahang are easily 1,000 feet above sea level, a lot of greens, the air and temperature there are welcoming. These resort stays will gain popularity in time to come.
We were also privilege to visit a plantation in Klau and met a few durian plantation owners/operators. Through the dialogue, we understand the exponential market in China. The volume they are able to absorb, is so huge, that even suppliers dare not commit. There are different demands and market, different ways of storing and exporting durians.
It was a good trip (1-3 Sept 2017). We made new friends, enjoyed good durians, ate great food (and if you do visit Bentong/Raub, do try the freshwater fishes at restaurants. I'm hooked).
Brief Recent History
In the mid 90s, we saw an over supply of durian. Prices plummet to as low as $1.20/kg for D24 (MSW wasn't available in Singapore then). The depressed price caused losses to plantation owners. Many plantations ended up chopping down their trees and switching to oil palm. Supply and prices of durian start to 'recover and stabilized' in the late 90s and early 2000s.
The China and HK demand became known sometime in the early 2010. Selling prices there is about S$100-$120/kg and order list were established even before durians were imported into those markets. MSW durians were not sold in shops.
New preservation methods (simply using temperature to control further ripening) had opened up markets further.
Future Of Durian
The new concern Singapore and Malaysia consumers will be bothered about, is the supply and prices. The surge in prices this year and many realising the huge Chinese market, are raising concerns on the future supplies and prices.
Looking at the swats of agriculture land used to plant durian trees, the trees looks rather young, many are hovering between the height of 15-30 feet. These trees may not produce huge harvest in the coming years but I guess, it will start to mature in the coming 3-5 years.
In approximately 5 years, we should see supply increase tremendously (subjected to weather too). I do believe supply can meet the new demand from China market, although I doubt it will bring prices down to what we experience years ago.
Will we see another over supply situation like in the mid 90s? Chances are slim. Well, unless ground sentiments of the Chinese (like how they boycott Japan and South Korea from time to time) strikes between them and Malaysia.
However, due to the huge swats of land being used to cultivate durians, we should see price equilibrium around the $18-20/kg region during the peak.
--------------------
Above is just my novice observations and opinion.
07 September 2017
12 August 2017
Comparing MSW
I can't exactly say the taste test is conclusive in the kind of MSW supplies at different stalls but we did a taste test if 3 durian stalls.
MSW were purchased from 3 different stalls, 1 is a new stall, the other 2 were well established stalls. Price differs were pronounced. I shall not name the stalls nor prices to be fair.
Stall 1. New stall.
Price is general as most other stalls around the island. We reserved 2 from this stall. I did a further screening to pick what I thought would be better. But I am not an expert in choosing thus it would be unfair to them to say theirs are of a certain standard.
However, the MSW is average. As much as I think it would be likewise for many stalls.
Stall 2. Established stall.
Price is steep. About 40% higher than 1st stall. Quality is much better yet lacking the 'punch I look for in MSW.
Given the much higher Price, the standard is expected to be vastly better. Well, it was.
Stall 3. Established stall with good reputation.
Price is 50% higher than 1st stall and quality beats all. Maybe the boss knows we are doing a comparison so he picked the best in his opinion. We were all in awe.
The 2 were dry yet sticky and nice bitterness and mildly sweet.
The boss further opened another 2 to treat us, each having a different character, with 1 having a flora and smoked woody scent and another having a kind of spiciness bite (mildly acidic or burning sensation) in the sides of my tongue, the kind of MSW I seek.
This stall will gladly replace or not giving it to customers if it doesn't meet the customer's standard.
For the price they charge, its worth it.
Below photos are not in any sequence and no pinpointing which durian were purchased from which stall.
MSW were purchased from 3 different stalls, 1 is a new stall, the other 2 were well established stalls. Price differs were pronounced. I shall not name the stalls nor prices to be fair.
Stall 1. New stall.
Price is general as most other stalls around the island. We reserved 2 from this stall. I did a further screening to pick what I thought would be better. But I am not an expert in choosing thus it would be unfair to them to say theirs are of a certain standard.
However, the MSW is average. As much as I think it would be likewise for many stalls.
Stall 2. Established stall.
Price is steep. About 40% higher than 1st stall. Quality is much better yet lacking the 'punch I look for in MSW.
Given the much higher Price, the standard is expected to be vastly better. Well, it was.
Stall 3. Established stall with good reputation.
Price is 50% higher than 1st stall and quality beats all. Maybe the boss knows we are doing a comparison so he picked the best in his opinion. We were all in awe.
The 2 were dry yet sticky and nice bitterness and mildly sweet.
The boss further opened another 2 to treat us, each having a different character, with 1 having a flora and smoked woody scent and another having a kind of spiciness bite (mildly acidic or burning sensation) in the sides of my tongue, the kind of MSW I seek.
This stall will gladly replace or not giving it to customers if it doesn't meet the customer's standard.
For the price they charge, its worth it.
Below photos are not in any sequence and no pinpointing which durian were purchased from which stall.
Given the high cost and selling Price, we will not be able to indulge as much as we did last year or before.
07 August 2017
Durian Season 2017 - August
This year's durian seasons are all screwed up, terribly. The La Nina effect robbed us of our beloved fruit and disrupted supplies, resulting in historically high price.
Just 2 weeks ago, Singaporeans favourite variant, Mao Shan Wang 猫山王 (mountain cat) was going at S$35/kg or higher. What??? Some goes in disbelieve. That's like more expensive than gold.
Yes, that is a real situation that happened. Even at the source supply area, Bentong and Raub (in Pahang, Malaysia), it was selling at RM110/kg, if not more. Even if you are willing to pay, you may not be able to buy it.
Some may ask, "What's the weather relationship with durians?"
During flowering and early fruitation, its lije first trimester (no offense to ladies. Just trying to find a word to describe the dedicate stage). The flowers and young fruit are vulnerable to strong wind, heavy rain, extreme weather's, etc.
La Nina resulted in heavy rainfall, which is uncommon between late April to even November. However, we have been getting heavy and days of rain from April till now.
A recent trip up north.
On 23 July 2017, I followed Dr Roy, on a trip up Pahang (Bentong and Raub) in searched for the prized fruit. We Only chanced upon a few stalls with very limited durian supplies on sale.
Of the types we ate, includes D24, MSW and some 'kampung durians. Honestly, taste test, we were not impressed. Not that we are fussy, but the durians didn't make the mark. It's like cheap wine. But when cravings are strong and we turned beggars, beggars can't be choosers. So we were sorely defeated. Next trip coming up soon.
Bentong Pahang durian
On 29 July 2017 weekend, I made a trip to Melaka. I know where the durians are sold so that's like the best bet for my fixation.
In Melaka, I managed to sink my fangs into 'Kampung' durians, Red Prawns, MSW and something else I can't recall. Prices on this trip were slightly softer, at RM95/kg for MSW and RM45/kg for Red Prawn.
Melaka Durian Trip
The Season Starts
We were informed durian season should start in Mid Auguest 2017. Of course don't expect the bumper supply like in 2015. It will only increase from the current sorry state and prices will come down.
The current price, as of 3 August 2017, started coming down to $29/kg, And lowest I heard was $26/kg. I'm not on a durian hunt in Singapore thus I won't be aptly updated.
The guess is, 2nd half of August 2017, I forecast (MSW) price to drop to as low as around $20-22/kg. It may go a bit lower but I don't expect $15/kg. A fair lowest price should be about $20/kg. But don't hold me to it. It's just a guess. If I'm right, you buy me durian ok.
---------- edit 9 Aug 2017 ----------
Saw MSW on sale at $20/kg today. Prices came down faster than expected. In this case, it is likely going to drop to $16-18/kg by end of the month.
---------- edit end ----------
In my recent trips, be it Pahang and Muar/Pasir, I don't see flowering on the trees near the road. So I guess the next season won't start in November (maybe scattered flowers) but likely in December.
Let me throw open another wild guess. Should the weather revert back to the norm, we should see a good supply in 2018 since trees didn't get to produce much in 2016 and 2017. These trees are pump up but didn't get to produce. Just a real wild one here.
(Disclaimer. Don't be deceived by photos. These durians were actual fruit and color but it's how I capture photos that makes it.looks better than it really is.)
Just 2 weeks ago, Singaporeans favourite variant, Mao Shan Wang 猫山王 (mountain cat) was going at S$35/kg or higher. What??? Some goes in disbelieve. That's like more expensive than gold.
Yes, that is a real situation that happened. Even at the source supply area, Bentong and Raub (in Pahang, Malaysia), it was selling at RM110/kg, if not more. Even if you are willing to pay, you may not be able to buy it.
Some may ask, "What's the weather relationship with durians?"
During flowering and early fruitation, its lije first trimester (no offense to ladies. Just trying to find a word to describe the dedicate stage). The flowers and young fruit are vulnerable to strong wind, heavy rain, extreme weather's, etc.
La Nina resulted in heavy rainfall, which is uncommon between late April to even November. However, we have been getting heavy and days of rain from April till now.
A recent trip up north.
On 23 July 2017, I followed Dr Roy, on a trip up Pahang (Bentong and Raub) in searched for the prized fruit. We Only chanced upon a few stalls with very limited durian supplies on sale.
Of the types we ate, includes D24, MSW and some 'kampung durians. Honestly, taste test, we were not impressed. Not that we are fussy, but the durians didn't make the mark. It's like cheap wine. But when cravings are strong and we turned beggars, beggars can't be choosers. So we were sorely defeated. Next trip coming up soon.
Bentong Pahang durian
On 29 July 2017 weekend, I made a trip to Melaka. I know where the durians are sold so that's like the best bet for my fixation.
In Melaka, I managed to sink my fangs into 'Kampung' durians, Red Prawns, MSW and something else I can't recall. Prices on this trip were slightly softer, at RM95/kg for MSW and RM45/kg for Red Prawn.
Melaka Durian Trip
The Season Starts
We were informed durian season should start in Mid Auguest 2017. Of course don't expect the bumper supply like in 2015. It will only increase from the current sorry state and prices will come down.
The current price, as of 3 August 2017, started coming down to $29/kg, And lowest I heard was $26/kg. I'm not on a durian hunt in Singapore thus I won't be aptly updated.
The guess is, 2nd half of August 2017, I forecast (MSW) price to drop to as low as around $20-22/kg. It may go a bit lower but I don't expect $15/kg. A fair lowest price should be about $20/kg. But don't hold me to it. It's just a guess. If I'm right, you buy me durian ok.
---------- edit 9 Aug 2017 ----------
Saw MSW on sale at $20/kg today. Prices came down faster than expected. In this case, it is likely going to drop to $16-18/kg by end of the month.
---------- edit end ----------
In my recent trips, be it Pahang and Muar/Pasir, I don't see flowering on the trees near the road. So I guess the next season won't start in November (maybe scattered flowers) but likely in December.
Let me throw open another wild guess. Should the weather revert back to the norm, we should see a good supply in 2018 since trees didn't get to produce much in 2016 and 2017. These trees are pump up but didn't get to produce. Just a real wild one here.
(Disclaimer. Don't be deceived by photos. These durians were actual fruit and color but it's how I capture photos that makes it.looks better than it really is.)
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